The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But even the best stock picker will only win with some selections. At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE:KREF), since the last five years saw the share price fall 22%. Shareholders have had an even rougher run recently, with the share price down 15% in the last 90 days.
It’s worthwhile assessing if the company’s economy has been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let’s do just that.
See our latest analysis for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years over which the share price declined, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust’s earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 18% each year. The share price decline of 5% per year isn’t as bad as the EPS decline. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back — or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline.
The company’s earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It’s probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at us free report on KKR Real Estate Finance Trust’s earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for KKR Real Estate Finance Trust the TSR over the last 5 years was 22%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments in part explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
While it’s certainly disappointing to see that KKR Real Estate Finance Trust shares lost 13% throughout the year, that wasn’t as bad as the market loss of 18%. Longer term investors wouldn’t be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. It could be that the business is just facing some short term problems, but shareholders should keep a close eye on the fundamentals. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example – KKR Real Estate Finance Trust has 4 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn’t be ignored) we think you should know about.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that are currently traded on US exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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